LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$27.20
Said $2.72· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“based on the Elliot wave technicals as I did bring up two videos ago it is kind of anticipated for it to hit between that mid twos to $272”@ 5:06 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe speaker presents a partially bearish view, noting the selloff has some justification. Key concern: an individual who claims a private Gravity showing says pre-orders and deliveries start next year under $100K - contradicting Peter Rawlinson's guidance on timing and pricing. This may explain why shorts keep increasing. Technically, Lucid broke below the 50-day moving average and Elliott Wave targets mid-$2s to $2.72.
Key arguments
- Manufacturing data below 50 signals broader contraction, legitimate concern
- Middle East escalation adding broad market pressure
- Social media report of Gravity pre-orders starting next year under $100K conflicts with Lucid guidance
- Lucid broke below 50-day MA for a confirmed downtrend
- Elliott Wave technicals point to $2.50-$2.72 range
- Investors need a catalyst - just 'okayish' news isn't enough anymore
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock is technically oversold and could bounce on any good news
- Gravity information comes from a low-follower account and may be unreliable
The call
- Date said
- Oct 1, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $32.60
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $26.90
- Return
- +17.5%
- Notes
- Target ≤$27.2 reached on 2024-10-17. Price: $26.90. Return: +17.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$27.2 reached on 2024-10-17. Price: $26.90. Return: +17.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.