TSLABearhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“I think there might be there might be a chance that we actually end up below 400 in a week coming in the next four weeks.”@ 10:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is setting up for a major rally despite current weakness, with the speaker expecting the stock to move from sideways trading to explosive upward moves of 50-100% when the inflection point arrives. The current selloffs are viewed as fake and temporary, with fundamental progress continuing through robotaxi deployment and AGI-driven productivity gains.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi progress continuing with unsupervised fleet growing
- Cybercab deployment expected in April will be a major catalyst
- AGI productivity gains will drive revenue and profitability through the roof
- Current market fear creates perfect setup for bullish moves
- Tesla historically moves sideways then explodes 50-100% in short periods
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- March could see more problems and downside
- Lack of substantial hard catalysts until April
- Potential for major delays in inflection point timing
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Concerned about March volatility and potential further downside before the rally
- Acknowledges need for caution and more waiting before fully betting on the rally
- Notes that current performance (1%+ weekly alpha) is not sustainable long-term
- Warns of potentially 'very bad things' coming in non-market contexts (AGI risks)
- Acknowledges there will be negative weeks ahead
The call
- Date said
- Feb 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- in the next four weeks
- Deadline
- Mar 23, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $399.83
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $392.43
- Return
- +1.9%
- Notes
- Target ≤$400 reached on 2026-03-03. Price: $392.43. Return: +1.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$400 reached on 2026-03-03. Price: $392.43. Return: +1.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses hedge words 'might be' and 'chance', showing uncertainty