TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$480
“The train is here. It's at 480. So, we have 120 dollars to go up before we even are where we were in December.”@ 14:43 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe YouTuber views Tesla as fundamentally strong and sees the Iran ceasefire as removing a major risk factor that was suppressing the stock. He believes Tesla is positioned for significant upside as geopolitical tensions ease and the market enters 'bull territory'.
Key arguments
- Geopolitical risk from Iran conflict has significantly decreased
- Tesla dropped from recent highs creating buying opportunity
- AGI age provides fundamental long-term support
- Market is like a 'coiled spring' ready to run higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Acknowledges he had to de-risk during the conflict
- Notes robo-taxis timeline remains uncertain
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges tail risk of ceasefire breakdown in two weeks
- Notes bears' concern that Israel or Trump could violate ceasefire agreement
- Explicitly stated earlier concern: 'this is too much risk for me'
- Uncertainty about whether Trump will reverse course or if Israel will escalate
- Cautious framing: 'it's time to go a little risk on' (gradual, not aggressive)
The call
- Date said
- Apr 8, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $343.25
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$101.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Clear target price but framed as returning to previous levels rather than new highs, with some hedging language