TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,000
“when we actually hit 40,000 or 30,000 deployed robo taxis that's when it reprices to 2,000 because then Wall Street understands this is not going to take very long to scale the hell out of this... There will be remaining doubt. That's why it's only probably going to go to a thousand the stock in my opinion.”@ 15:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's robotaxi rollout is crossing forcing-function thresholds: iOS app opened to all users in Austin, Arizona state-wide approval, and validation vehicles spotted in rural Temple TX and Inola PA suggest statewide rather than metro-only coverage. Bhakdi expects two repricing events: first when robotaxi cash flow hits 5% of Tesla (doubling FCF), second when 30-40k robotaxis deploy. He is pulling his inflection-point date earlier and maintains his 2,000+ stock target.
Key arguments
- Tesla received state-wide robotaxi approval from Arizona DOT across the entire state
- Robotaxi iOS app is now available to all users in Austin, not invite-only, creating a supply-side forcing function
- Validation vehicles spotted in Temple, Texas (between Dallas and Austin) and Inola, Pennsylvania - both non-metro, suggesting state-wide coverage
- A robotaxi generates up to $30,000 margin per year vs $6,000 once for a Model Y sale
- Elon predicted 1,000 robotaxis in Bay Area and 400 in Austin by end of year
- Cybercab mass production ramping for April 2026 with up to 30-40,000 units
- At less than $1 per mile, robotaxi replaces Uber, public transport, car ownership, covering state-sized regions
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Wall Street analysts think it will take years and years to scale
- Bhakdi notes 'remaining doubt' on scaling beyond easy cities will cap first repricing
- Waymo operates in tiny geofenced areas and cannot do this
The call
- Date said
- Nov 21, 2025
- Timeframe
- first repricing event - when FCF doubles, maybe 2026 or early 2027
- Deadline
- Mar 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $391.09
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$621.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedged with 'probably' and 'in my opinion', tied to Wall Street recognizing FCF doubling