TSLABullpending
Tom NashTarget Price
$5,600
“middle case 2035 $5600 which is $1,200%.”@ 14:01 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is a great business that is fundamentally strong but mispriced by the market, positioned to dominate three massive secular trends: robotics, autonomous driving/robotaxi, and energy storage. The company will transition from being primarily an auto company to a monopoly in robotics, FSD, and energy by 2030.
Key arguments
- Tesla has increased free cash flow by 275% and revenue by 240% over 5 years while lagging S&P 500, indicating mispricing
- Positioned to dominate human robotics (projected $100B market by 2030), autonomous driving, and energy storage
- Has the capital ($40B cash), talent, and technical expertise in batteries, vision sensors, and manufacturing
- FSD is near perfect and works at fraction of cost compared to competitors
- Energy business will be bigger than automotive business by 2030
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short-term risks include big drops, delays, bad news, and Elon Musk controversies
- Stagnating EV demand and margin compression from Chinese competition
- Very volatile journey ahead with chaotic and messy path
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice
- Past performance (Palantir, Nvidia examples) does not guarantee future results
- Author holds ~20% of portfolio in Tesla (potential conflict of interest)
- Video relies on historical metrics that may not predict future performance
- Market sentiment and valuation multiples can change independently of fundamentals
The call
- Date said
- Jan 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2035
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Price at prediction
- $449.06
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$5,221.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Medium case for very long-term with substantial uncertainty