Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$36
Said $3.60· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“what I anticipate a kind of a pre earnings fomo run to maybe around that 360 that's where I realistically see things if not potentially a little bit higher”@ 6:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Bullish79,000 ITM options (at the $2.50-$3.00 strikes) require market makers to cover approximately 7.9 million shares on Tuesday's market open, providing a mechanical upside catalyst. The speaker also notes abnormal after-hours buying on Friday as likely additional market maker coverage. A pre-earnings FOMO run to ~$3.42 is anticipated, with potentially higher if guidance is strong. The key Trump executive orders at inauguration could create EV-related volatility. Short interest at 18.99% with room to double-down if data turns negative.
Key arguments
- 79K ITM options at $2.50-$3.00 strikes require ~7.9M shares of market maker coverage on Tuesday — mechanical pop
- Abnormal after-hours buying Friday likely from market makers pre-covering those options
- Shorter week (MLK Monday off) compresses volatility into fewer trading days
- Pre-earnings FOMO run historically drives LCID to a local peak before the actual print
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Trump executive orders at inauguration could create negative EV sector volatility
- Removal of $7,500 EV credit rumored to be among first executive orders
The call
- Date said
- Jan 19, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 25, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $26.10
- Return
- -8.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $36. Price: $26.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $36. Price: $26.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.