TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$650
“I also believe Robotaxi will be in time and probably launch successfully and probably have some good numbers for us which could easily get the shares to something around 650 by August.”@ 11:35 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla at 236 is trading at a 43% discount to model fair value with end-2025 target of 657 and 2030 target of 12,700 under conservative robotaxi and Optimus assumptions, making this a generational entry point but with recommendation to wait for sentiment shift rather than catch a falling knife.
Key arguments
- Fair value end-2025 is 657 (up from 366 last December)
- 2030 target adjusted to 12,700 per share
- Current 236 stock = 43% discount to fair value of 418
- Conservative model inputs: 50 robotaxis 2025, 10k 2026, 50k 2027, 200k 2028; Optimus 110k cumulative by 2027
- Robotaxi June launch remains on track based on all indicators
- Potential 650 by August if robotaxi launches successfully
- Fear & greed at 16 - not a selling point, but also don't catch falling knife
- Presenter moved 30% of core stock position into Dec 2026 900-strike LEAPS two weeks ago
- Trump willingness to tolerate market chaos implies advisors see no fundamental risk
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Main risk: robotaxi launch could mess up or get delayed
- Secondary risk: broader market/economy crash
- Next 5 weeks until earnings likely turmoil
The call
- Date said
- Mar 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- by August
- Deadline
- Aug 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $222.15
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $329.36
- Return
- +48.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 25% progress toward target $650. Price: $329.36.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 25% progress toward target $650. Price: $329.36.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker explicitly hedges as 'optimistic scenario but not crazy' and conditions on successful robotaxi launch.