LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$21.40
Said $2.14· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“it is going to push higher I'm not here to say it's going to get to the threes or whatever else but at least it will continue to trade between this pivot and this S1”@ 5:50 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker predicts a further pullback toward $1.83 in the first half of the week driven by Nvidia earnings uncertainty and weak retail momentum, followed by a bounce as value investors step in. A 59.9% likelihood of a December Fed rate cut would benefit Lucid given the EV sector's rate sensitivity.
Key arguments
- Stock at all-time lows with stochastic RSI oversold — value buying opportunity
- 23.81% of float shorted; shorts have been suppressing breakout attempts
- Rate cut probability at 59.9% for December 18 — positive for EV sector
- Nvidia earnings Thursday and manufacturing data Friday are key macro drivers
- 7,000 put open interest at $2 means market makers may cover ~700K shares on Monday
- Retail investors have been net sellers — no dip buying momentum
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Trump's EV tax credit removal could hurt future midsize sales in 2026
- Lucid's poor PR and lack of Gravity updates damage shareholder sentiment
The call
- Date said
- Nov 17, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $21.40
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $21.40
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≥$21.4 reached on 2024-11-18. Price: $21.40. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$21.4 reached on 2024-11-18. Price: $21.40. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.