LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$36.70
Said $3.67· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“flip side 337 349 and then 367 is going to be the next strong Target SL resistance points so I think on a technical basis it's moving higher”@ 4:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is up 7.59% driven by Rivian's strong Q4 beat and bullish manufacturing PMI data. The speaker views technicals as pointing higher — Lucid is above all key moving averages with the stochastic RSI resetting from oversold. Q4 delivery numbers expected late next week or the following week are anticipated to be a further bullish catalyst.
Key arguments
- Rivian's Q4 beat caused positive EV sector spillover to Lucid
- Manufacturing PMI at 49.3 (above 48.5 forecast) signals improving economic expansion
- Lucid is above Alma, 100/200-day moving averages — all key technical indicators positive
- Options show consensus for $3.50-$4 range from bulls, bears targeting sub-$3
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts lingering at 22.6% short float, increasing 1.76M shares today
- Only thing shorts look for is more produced than delivered to suggest demand issue
The call
- Date said
- Jan 3, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $32.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $23.20
- Return
- -29.5%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $36.7. Price: $23.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $36.7. Price: $23.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.