TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,000
“We see the stock again at 1,000 in September or something.”@ 10:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla bottomed at 222 with a higher low at 250, rallied 5% on bad deliveries plus Elon stepping down from Doge, and is set up for a big bull run as the June robotaxi launch approaches with 25-30k additional US car sales boost from import tariffs on competitors.
Key arguments
- Tesla rallied 5% on bad Q1 delivery miss (336,681) because all negativity is baked in
- Elon stepping down from Doge removes political and distraction overhang
- April 28/29 earnings is now de-risked - all eyes on robotaxi confirmation
- Cyber cab at sub-$20,000 COGS (estimate $15,000) enables sub-$1 per mile pricing versus Uber $2.50-3
- Trump 25% auto import tariffs knock out Mach-E, Mustang Mach-E and Hyundai EV competitors and add 25-30k additional Tesla US sales
- Tesla locally produces in all three regions so exempt from retaliatory tariffs
- 11,000 price target by 2030 is conservative when modeled out
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If robotaxi goes wrong there is a huge short-term problem
- Q1 deliveries were one of the worst in many quarters
The call
- Date said
- Apr 2, 2025
- Timeframe
- in September
- Deadline
- Sep 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $282.76
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $444.72
- Return
- +57.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $1000. Price: $444.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $1000. Price: $444.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker says 'something' showing some hedge, but an explicit month is given and conditional on robotaxi launch working.