PLTRBullhit
Tom NashTarget Price
$150
“Based on my bare case, the absolute worst of Palunteer. In five years, the stock is going to be at $150, which means that 30% 26% from now.”@ 18:09 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTom Nash argues that Palantir's recent 26% decline over 6 months is a buying opportunity driven by market sentiment and Michael Burry's bearish thesis, not fundamental deterioration. He presents extensive financial data showing 56% revenue growth, 191% operating margin growth, $2B free cash flow, and a 98/100 scorecard rating on his platform.
Key arguments
- Revenue growing at 56% annually with operating margins expanding 191%
- Company generates $2B in free cash flow with $7.2B cash vs $400M debt (17x coverage)
- Institutional investors have been accumulating shares for 2.5 years despite public bearish sentiment
- Anthropic competition thesis flawed - different use cases and scalability
- Stock MVP scorecard rates PLTR 98/100, higher than Nvidia's 88/100
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Michael Burry's bearish thesis about Anthropic disruption
- Recent market volatility and AI sector selloff
- Stock down 26% over 6 months creating investor nervousness
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice
- Presenter acknowledges nervousness and panic are understandable given recent declines
- Analysis focuses on long-term perspective (1-5 year returns) rather than short-term trading
- Presenter notes market volatility and geopolitical factors (Iran situation) contributed to decline
- Acknowledges contrarian bearish views from Michael Burry deserve consideration
The call
- Date said
- Apr 10, 2026
- Timeframe
- in five years
- Deadline
- Apr 10, 2031
- Price at prediction
- $128.06
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $179.92
- Return
- +40.5%
- Notes
- Target ≥$150 reached on 2026-09-02. Price: $179.92. Return: +40.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$150 reached on 2026-09-02. Price: $179.92. Return: +40.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Presented as worst-case scenario with high conviction based on fundamental analysis