LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$28
“you can see a very nice push higher because looking right over at the market position you don't see any real strong walls of selling. So essentially if Lucid had that nice push meaning their next big catalyst so their numbers that could be really what pushes it to that 28 30 and potentially even higher.”@ 5:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is showing healthy, controlled price appreciation rather than unsustainable bursts, which the analyst views as a positive sign of durable support. Shorts at 31.27% of the free float are actively suppressing the stock but it continues to hold up well. The upcoming Q3 production/delivery numbers are expected to be the key catalyst to push it through the 200-day moving average at $24.68 and then to $28-$30+.
Key arguments
- Steady, controlled price action is healthier than quick burst-and-fade patterns seen previously
- Q3 earnings report (expected that week) is the next major catalyst
- Once above 200-day moving average at $24.68, no strong walls of selling visible
- Lucid voluntarily extending $7,500 tax credit through year-end could boost Q4 sales
- Shorts at 31.27% free float are trying to suppress but Lucid holding up
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Even hitting $30 is only a $3 move from current price
- Low volume (984K vs 11.3M average) raises questions about sustainability
The call
- Date said
- Oct 1, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $10.90
- Return
- -55.1%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $28. Price: $10.90.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $28. Price: $10.90.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.