LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$27.01
“At the time of doing this video, the Elliot wave technicals is projecting for Lucid to be above or roughly around that 2701. So between 2549 and 2701 at least in the short term.”@ 4:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishA flyover showing ~12-13 car haulers (most ever seen) signals strong Gravity deliveries for Q3 close. Elliott Wave projects a move to $25.49-$27.01 with only 9,000 shares available to short, making it impossible for shorts to increase pressure. Two consecutive closes above the 50-day moving average are needed to confirm the historically significant 30% upward swing signal. The analyst notes that insider buying would be the most powerful catalyst of all.
Key arguments
- Flyover shows ~12-13 car haulers — most ever seen — strong Q3 delivery push
- Elliott Wave projects $25.49 to $27.01 in short term
- Only 9,000 shares available to short — shorts unable to double down
- First confirmed close above 50-day MA; second consecutive needed to confirm 30% swing signal
- Market position shows minimal selling walls if Lucid gets a news catalyst
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tomorrow is critical — must hold above 50-day moving average for signal to confirm
- GDP and PCE data later in the week could drag the broader market down
The call
- Date said
- Sep 23, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.24
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $12.30
- Return
- -44.7%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $27.01. Price: $12.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $27.01. Price: $12.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.