TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$480
“we are looking at 480 and 480 being the magnet where we end up with this whole situation.”@ 13:18 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe affordable Model Y launch in October at potentially $32K will expand Tesla's TAM 3-8x and drive the stock to a $480 magnet by earnings; the mid-October launch scenario is most likely based on tax credit expiration and PR timing.
Key arguments
- E41 affordable Model Y targeted at $32K would be huge TAM expansion.
- Launch delayed from July 1 to October due to tax credit expiration boost.
- Stock magnet at $480 into October 22 earnings.
- Fed correction risk deferred to October 29 meeting.
- Under $35K price is minimum required for real benefit.
- Three launch scenarios: before earnings (most likely), right after tax credit, delayed.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Disappointing announcement if model priced at $39K.
- Could be hard to cut $10K out of the Model Y costs.
- Delivery risk on October 2 could derail aggressive trade.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 30, 2025
- Timeframe
- into October 22 earnings
- Deadline
- Oct 22, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $444.72
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $438.97
- Return
- -1.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $480. Price: $438.97.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $480. Price: $438.97.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker describes 480 as a magnet contingent on affordable model launch scenario.