TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$12,700
“I'm now with some more de-risking at 12,700 share price in 2030.”@ 7:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla at 236 is trading at a 43% discount to model fair value with end-2025 target of 657 and 2030 target of 12,700 under conservative robotaxi and Optimus assumptions, making this a generational entry point but with recommendation to wait for sentiment shift rather than catch a falling knife.
Key arguments
- Fair value end-2025 is 657 (up from 366 last December)
- 2030 target adjusted to 12,700 per share
- Current 236 stock = 43% discount to fair value of 418
- Conservative model inputs: 50 robotaxis 2025, 10k 2026, 50k 2027, 200k 2028; Optimus 110k cumulative by 2027
- Robotaxi June launch remains on track based on all indicators
- Potential 650 by August if robotaxi launches successfully
- Fear & greed at 16 - not a selling point, but also don't catch falling knife
- Presenter moved 30% of core stock position into Dec 2026 900-strike LEAPS two weeks ago
- Trump willingness to tolerate market chaos implies advisors see no fundamental risk
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Main risk: robotaxi launch could mess up or get delayed
- Secondary risk: broader market/economy crash
- Next 5 weeks until earnings likely turmoil
The call
- Date said
- Mar 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- in 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $222.15
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$12,321.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit model-derived DCF number after de-risking adjustments.