TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$620
“in June 25, the fair future value of Tesla on a discounted cash flow level is actually 620.”@ 25:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishRobotaxi (June 2025) and Optimus Gen 3 (Q4 2025) are converging catalysts with 90%+ joint probability of delivering transformational news by mid-2026, supporting DCF fair values of $620 (June 2025), $1,113 (June 2026), and $11,000 (2030).
Key arguments
- 30% chance robotaxi fully works at launch in June; 90% chance by Q1-Q2 2026.
- Optimus Gen 3 demo and Legion visual in Q4 2025 likely triggers 'robo porn' FOMO among analysts.
- Tesla R&D $5B/year, Cortex 60K H100 equivalent, zero real autonomy competition - four conditions for success are met.
- Every FSD failure doubles R&D investment - exponentially decreasing failure probability over time.
- Dan Ives/Adam Jonas likely raise targets to $800+ once catalysts land.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla could drop to $150 if robotaxi launch is a disaster or macro crashes.
- Tariff-related cold trade war with China could delay Cyber Cab mass production.
The call
- Date said
- Apr 21, 2025
- Timeframe
- June 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $227.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $317.66
- Return
- +39.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $620. Price: $317.66.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $620. Price: $317.66.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
DCF-based fair value target contingent on execution of Bhakdi's scenario.