LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$11.83
“next real target is going to be that blue line right there, the 50-day moving average... that's sitting at 11.83.”@ 6:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid up 3.85% in a down market, driven primarily by Tesla's announcement that Model S/X production is winding down next quarter (benefiting Lucid Air as competition), and secondarily by the NAF Winter Test 2026 range record of 520km. Large institutional buys on secondary market ($5.6M and $1.5M in AH). Two consecutive days above the 10-day moving average signals trend confirmation, with the 50-day MA at $11.83 as the next target. Shorts returning 114K shares is also positive.
Key arguments
- Tesla winding down Model S/X production — removes direct Air competitor, bullish for Lucid
- Lucid Air achieves 520km range at NAF Winter Test 2026 — best in field
- Large institutional buys: $5.6M and $1.5M after hours on secondary market
- Second day above 10-day moving average signals confirmed bullish trend
- Shorts returned 114K shares — not adding pressure
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Primary driver was Tesla news, not Lucid-specific fundamentals
- Shutdown risk and broader market fear limit upside
The call
- Date said
- Jan 29, 2026
- Deadline
- Jan 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.33
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.07
- Return
- -2.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11.83. Price: $11.07.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11.83. Price: $11.07.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.