LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$14.14
“I do feel by the end of the week, we will be closing between this R2 and this R1. So between that 1414 and 1377.”@ 7:45 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishOptions market consensus is pointing to $14.50–$15 for LCID, and the speaker sees algorithmic trading pushing the stock higher similar to September's run. The speaker believes a 25bp rate cut is likely and that Lucid just needs institutional buying to get back into the $14+ range. He set a realistic weekly close between $13.77 and $14.14.
Key arguments
- Options flow shows bulls targeting $14.50–$15 while bears are hedging against a macro Powell disappointment
- Shorts returned 664K shares on Friday signaling the selloff may be unjustified
- Algorithmic trading driven by broader market optimism could push LCID higher similar to September's run
- 86.2% likelihood of a 25bp rate cut priced in which is broadly positive for speculative stocks
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Powell could disappoint by not cutting, which would drag speculative stocks lower
- A negative review by a 4.16M subscriber channel caused Friday's 5% drop and could weigh on sentiment
The call
- Date said
- Dec 7, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 12, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $12.76
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $12.54
- Return
- -1.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $14.14. Price: $12.54.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $14.14. Price: $12.54.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.