LCIDNeutralmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$9.50
“I did state that the 950 range was going to be a temporary bottom. Good opportunity for a nice swing trade.”
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid hit a new all-time low near $9.50 while short interest climbed to a record 36.62% of the free float. The speaker sees the $9.50 range as a temporary bottom and potential swing trade entry, but notes institutions are not buying and the stock is below all key moving averages. A leaked Investor Day scheduled for March 12 could provide a catalyst.
Key arguments
- New 52-week all-time low hit at $9.53, record short interest at 36.62%
- Tariff fears on EU/Greenland weighing on broader market and Lucid specifically
- Institutions not buying; dark pool activity dominated by sells
- Investor Day leaked for March 12 — positive catalyst but lack of transparency from Lucid management is concerning
- AMP-2 not fully self-sustaining until mid-2026, leaving Lucid vulnerable until then
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI very oversold — algorithmic buying could spark recovery
- Gap on chart could pull price back toward $10
The call
- Date said
- Jan 20, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.73
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $9.44
- Return
- -3.0%
- Notes
- Floor $9.5 breached on 2026-02-23. Price: $9.44 (-3.0% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Floor $9.5 breached on 2026-02-23. Price: $9.44 (-3.0% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.