TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“I think we will probably go back to 360 very very quickly, maybe 400 and then we will get stuck there for a while.”@ 6:47 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is trading at the lower end of its range near $316 and is likely to bounce back to $360-$400 quickly on upcoming robotaxi scaling and affordable-model catalysts, with a larger forcing-function rally awaiting the 1,800-2,000 robotaxi threshold.
Key arguments
- Stock at $316 is bottom of trading range vs $360 upper bound.
- Affordable models due any day after first-half promise.
- Robotaxi capacity limit is likely much higher than current 10-20 deployed.
- Expected scaling may exceed fast scenario in very short term.
- 5% free cash flow forcing function requires ~1,800-2,000 robotaxis.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- After reaching $360-$400 range, stock may plateau for 1-6 months.
- Scaling past first operational ceiling will require solving issues of unknown duration.
The call
- Date said
- Jul 3, 2025
- Timeframe
- very short term (next few weeks)
- Deadline
- Aug 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $315.35
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $329.36
- Return
- +4.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 17% progress toward target $400. Price: $329.36.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 17% progress toward target $400. Price: $329.36.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host expresses high conviction on short-term bounce to $360 and maybe $400.