GOOGLBullpending
Tom NashTarget Price
$560
“By 2030, if you use cautious assumptions... you get a $560 per share, which is an 80% upside from this point by slashing the current growth of cloud by half.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTom Nash argues Google is a dominant 'landlord' of the AI industry via cloud infrastructure, and that its 22% drop from 52-week highs is a buying opportunity given accelerating cloud growth and margin expansion from in-house TPUs. He models an 80% upside to $560 per share by 2030 even using conservative growth assumptions.
Key arguments
- Google is one of three 'landlords' (with Amazon and Microsoft) owning over 60% of the world's cloud infrastructure/land, collecting rent regardless of who wins the AI race
- Revenue, operating income, free cash flow, and EBITDA margins have all improved dramatically since 2020 while the stock price fell
- Google Cloud revenue is up 82% year-over-year with operating income up 215%, and cloud margins expanded from 20.6% to 35.6% because Google's TPUs reduce dependency on Nvidia GPUs
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- "Don't click nothing, does much, nothing, don't buy nothing" - disclaimer against following advice without personal research
- Upside projections are based on presenter's personal models, not guaranteed outcomes
- Strategy requires long-term commitment and emotional discipline
- Past performance and methodology do not guarantee future results
- Presenter acknowledges this is their personal investment style, not universal advice
The call
- Date said
- Jul 27, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Current price (live)
- $351.16$208.84 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price target and clear timeframe (by 2030) add confidence, but the model relies on stated conservative/cautious assumptions, which is a hedging signal.
Source
Dips Don’t Last: 3 Stocks I’m Buying
Said on Jul 27, 2026Open on YouTube ↗