The call, on record
LCID neutral call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$17
Said $1.70· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“if it does fall below that 206 this is where you could get to kind of the mid ones so $170 $113 that is going to be the next strong supports”
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Mar 11, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: condition
- Notes
- The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
A new Canada-US tariff escalation triggered market fear, with Trump announcing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Lucid specifically stated in Q4 that tariffs would hit margins 12-15%, which is problematic given the company is already unprofitable. Shorts added 5.92M shares using nearly all available borrowable shares. The speaker warns of potential reverse stock split territory if the stock breaks below $1.
Key arguments
- Tariff escalation (50% on steel/aluminum) directly threatens Lucid margins by 12-15% per the company's own Q4 guidance
- Shorts added 5.92M shares, pushing utilization to near-100% – close to maximum short capacity
- Technical breakdown below $2.06 support, next level at $1.71
- AMP2 factory in Saudi Arabia reportedly still on schedule – a minor positive
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- CPI data coming the next day could provide a positive catalyst
- AMP2 Saudi factory construction proceeding on schedule
- Shorts may soon be forced to return shares due to near-maximum utilization
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Mar 11, 2025, 3:10 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_condition
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified condition
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before6.7
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before20.9
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-06-09
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeFloor $17 held through deadline. Final price: $22.30 (+6.7% vs ref).
AfterThe claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
- Outcome price
Before22.3
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified condition
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.70
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.