The call, on record
TSLA bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$6.67
Said $100· today's shares after the 5-for-1 (Aug 2020) and 3-for-1 (Aug 2022) splits
Quoted text as recorded“I'd say it's 90% that this stock trades under $100 within the next year”@ 11:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Sep 28, 2018
- Timeframe
- within the next year
- Extracted deadline
- Sep 28, 2019
- Interpreted confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored deadline disagrees with the deadline supported by the source quote and publication date. The extraction needs review before scoring.
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Our summary of the thesis
Strongly BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The SEC just filed fraud charges against Musk over the $420 take-private tweet, no investment bank will raise capital for Tesla given billions in civil-lawsuit liability, Model 3 is a lemon with reliability 4x worse than the next-worst car, and the whole company is dependent on free money in a rising-rate environment. Death-spiral puts at $150 and $100, June 2020 $200 puts, and short common make up the position. Odds of bankruptcy filing in the next year: 80%+.
Key arguments
- SEC fraud action against Musk + billions in civil lawsuits means no investment bank will raise capital for Tesla
- Board is liable under the $420-tweet lawsuits and may not have adequate D&O insurance
- Model 3 is a lemon — reliability 4x worse than the next-worst car, service centers already overwhelmed
- Whole nutty market is ending as rates climb; Tesla is 'completely dependent on free money in order to even exist'
- Plan A is fast bankruptcy from running out of money, Plan B is a busted growth story visible by early 2020 when competitor EVs hit showrooms
- Comparable: Valiant fell >90% after its initial 50% break — the best time to short valiant was AFTER the Philidor news, by analogy the best time to short Tesla may be right now
- Strategic buyout, if any, unlikely above $30/share — $10 extremely unlikely even in a buyout scenario
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Very high short interest puts a floor under the stock (shorts don't all wait for zero to cover)
- Strategic investor could theoretically inject ~$5B at $15-20/share and spike the stock back to $200
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Sep 28, 2018, 12:22 AM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Not recorded
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- claude-code-manual
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- deadline_source_mismatch
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
deadline source mismatch
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before21.26
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before20.501333
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2019-09-28
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 32% progress toward target $6.67. Price: $16.14.
AfterThe stored deadline disagrees with the deadline supported by the source quote and publication date. The extraction needs review before scoring.
- Outcome price
Before16.142
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterDeadline source mismatch
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $100
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Sep 28, 2019
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored deadline disagrees with the deadline supported by the source quote and publication date. The extraction needs review before scoring.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.
Why we interpreted the confidence this way
Explicit probability (90%) given directly in response to a bankruptcy-odds question; grounded in fundamental thesis + SEC fraud news as catalyst; position-backed (2020 $200 puts, short common).