LCIDNeutralhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$19.70
Said $1.97· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“$1.97 is that next strong support”@ 9:39 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishShorts added ~25M shares in 3 days following Lucid's triple-beat Q4 earnings, with the speaker attributing this to targeted manipulation against the Saudi PIF. LCID closed at $2.22 going into the week, with key resistance at $2.37. Available shares to short have dropped significantly from consistently 10M+ to 7.8M, suggesting shorts are near maximum deployment. The speaker warns Lucid must aggressively execute marketing and partnerships or face further deterioration.
Key arguments
- Available short shares have dropped from consistently 10M+ to 7.8M – approaching peak short utilization
- Shorts targeting PIF specifically – no other explanation for 25M+ shares in 3 days post-good-earnings
- Mark Wintermark needed to go on Bloomberg the morning after earnings – failure to do so was a major missed opportunity
- Elliott Wave technical projects further downside toward $2.04-$2.23 range before recovery
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Broader market has macro data week ahead that could provide lift
- If gap-fill mentality holds, $2.60 remains a medium-term target
- Shorts may be forced to cover soon as available shares dwindle
The call
- Date said
- Mar 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22.30
- Return
- +5.2%
- Notes
- Floor $19.7 held through deadline. Final price: $22.30 (+5.2% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Floor $19.7 held through deadline. Final price: $22.30 (+5.2% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.