LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$18.80
Said $1.88· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“on a technical standpoint going into this upcoming week, it is actually based on the Elliot wave technicals projecting for it to hit that $1.88 range”@ 5:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishAn unprecedented 10.43M share increase in Lucid short interest on Friday has the speaker worried that shorts may be acting on information the market doesn't have yet. Elliott Wave technicals project $1.88 as a near-term target. No Gravity sales in May also signals potential demand/supply issues. The speaker will only buy in the $1.80–$1.90 range.
Key arguments
- Unprecedented 10.43M short increase in a single day — shorts may have advance information
- Elliott Wave technicals project $1.88 target
- No Gravity sales recorded in May per Motor Intelligence data
- Lucid lacks transparency and isn't fulfilling its own stated goal of being more open
- Black Lane deal details still unclear despite hints
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If data points align and Elon/Trump drama resolves, could see recovery toward $2.50
- Stochastic RSI is mindblowingly oversold — any positive catalyst could drive a big recovery
The call
- Date said
- Jun 8, 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 15, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.50
- Return
- +3.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $18.8. Price: $21.50.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $18.8. Price: $21.50.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.