TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$640
“If robotaxi launches in time and Optimus comes along end of December, I think the stock will actually far exceed its fair value that I determined which is roughly 640 this year.”@ 14:17 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla at 249 is a 40% discount to the model-derived current fair value of around 400, bottomed at 222, and is set up with multiple catalysts (Model Y relaunch sales boom, robotaxi June launch, Russia peace, Optimus year-end) that should push the stock above the 640 end-of-year fair value.
Key arguments
- Current fair value per DCF model is roughly 400 - stock trading at 40% discount
- End of 2025 fair value target is 640
- Tesla bottomed at 222 with 9-week downtrend ending - historic longest downtrend
- Q1 sales weakness was due to Model Y production line changeover, already priced in
- Early Model Y relaunch sales data in China, US, Germany, Europe shows dramatic increases
- Brand damage narrative is fake news - 70% of Americans support Doge, 20% of Germans are AfD
- Russia peace in next 2 months could add 1.5-2% US GDP growth
- Retail dollars are flooding in and Tesla retail is more sophisticated than institutional
- Trump tariff strategy will lead to lower tariffs globally via reciprocity
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Real risk is delay in robotaxi June launch
- FSD execution risk remains the primary threat
The call
- Date said
- Mar 24, 2025
- Timeframe
- this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $278.39
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +61.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 47% progress toward target $640. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 47% progress toward target $640. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker frames 640 as his model-derived year-end fair value and expects the stock to exceed it under base case catalysts. Stated as a reference price rather than an absolute target.