TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$600
“If we cross the line in November, we could see 600 to a,000 share price this year.”@ 5:40 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla robotaxi's faster-than-expected expansion puts it on the fast-lane trajectory to cross the 5% free-cash-flow forcing function in November 2025, which could drive the stock to $600-$1,000 this year with asymmetric upside via out-of-the-money call options.
Key arguments
- Elon confirmed Austin service area expansion this weekend.
- Bay Area expansion expected in August or September pending regulatory approval.
- Critical threshold is ~1,800 robotaxis (5% of 2024 FCF).
- On fast trajectory, threshold crossed in November 2025 vs March 2026 on expected trajectory.
- Stock being suppressed on unrelated political noise sets up call option opportunity.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Wall Street currently ignoring robotaxi news.
- Model is probabilistic; actual deployment counts are unknown.
The call
- Date said
- Jul 11, 2025
- Timeframe
- this year (2025) if forcing function crosses November 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $313.51
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +43.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 48% progress toward target $600. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 48% progress toward target $600. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host uses 'could see' conditional on fast trajectory playing out.