LCIDNeutralhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$15
Said $1.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I would be buying at $150 next only because I feel like the risk vers reward is pretty good at that price”@ 2:02 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker is cautiously waiting for either a price drop to $1.50 for a value entry or confirmed catalysts (licensing partnerships, Gravity production ramp, Touring unveil) before adding more LCID. Q4 earnings showed real growth but the market reacted negatively to Peter Rawlinson's departure. The next strong support below $2.06 is $1.70 and $1.13.
Key arguments
- Q4 earnings showed actual growth for the first time in a long while, making it a buying catalyst
- Two buy scenarios: (1) value play at $1.50, or (2) confirmed catalysts at higher prices
- Key catalysts to watch: licensing/partnerships confirmed via press release, Gravity production ramp, Touring unveil
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Peter Rawlinson's departure is a red flag despite the speaker's optimism
- Lucid has repeatedly promised partnerships that haven't materialized
- Broader market recession probability ~30% for 2025 creates macro headwinds
The call
- Date said
- Mar 15, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $20.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $21
- Return
- +0.5%
- Notes
- Floor $15 held through deadline. Final price: $21.00 (+0.5% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Floor $15 held through deadline. Final price: $21.00 (+0.5% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.