TSLABullmiss
Matt Pocius on Tesla Stock & MoneyTarget Price
$1,500
“in his bull case actually Tesla stock will hit $1,500 by the end of 2025”@ 0:13 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is positioned for massive growth in 2025 driven by FSD licensing deals, unsupervised robotaxi deployment, and strong execution under Trump presidency. The company is transitioning from being viewed as a car company to a technology/AI/robotics company.
Key arguments
- FSD licensing with other automakers could be a game changer similar to supercharger deals
- Unsupervised robotaxi deployment expected in California and Texas at significant scale
- Trump presidency will benefit Tesla through favorable regulations and reduced investigations
- Strong Q4 delivery expectations around 515,000 vehicles
- Model Y Juniper production ramping quickly to 4,000 per week
- Tesla's 70 billion miles per year of driving data provides massive advantage for FSD development
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- EV credit may disappear under Trump which could hurt short-term
- FSD still has some weird behaviors and isn't perfect yet
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analyst prediction attributed to Brian Wong, not original analysis
- Some production figures noted as rumors ('this is likely not priced to Tesla stock yet')
- Relies on multiple future catalysts that must materialize (FSD licensing, China/Texas robotaxi deployment)
- Assumes successful execution of full self-driving technology by mid-2025
The call
- Date said
- Dec 30, 2024
- Timeframe
- by the end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $417.41
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +12.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 4% progress toward target $1500. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 4% progress toward target $1500. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Bull case scenario with less certainty than base case