TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$460
“If I'm right and the model will be launched and if the price is under 35,000, I have no concerns. we are probably going to go to 460.”@ 6:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe post-deliveries drop is noise from a sell-the-news pattern after the delivery leak; the affordable Model Y launch around October 16 remains the key catalyst that could push the stock to 460.
Key arguments
- Record 497,000 Q3 deliveries were a record but leaked before announcement.
- Stock is back at 434 roughly where it started before leak.
- Speaker's tactical short-put trade has buffer down to $432.
- Affordable Model Y must price under $35K to trigger real TAM expansion.
- Robin Hood is the speaker's only other position besides Tesla.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If launch priced at $39K, it would be a disappointment.
- If no launch happens, stock hangs around current level into earnings.
- Stock is slightly underwater vs entry.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 3, 2025
- Timeframe
- by October 17
- Deadline
- Oct 17, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $429.83
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $439.31
- Return
- +2.2%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 31% progress toward target $460. Price: $439.31.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 31% progress toward target $460. Price: $439.31.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on affordable model launch at sub-$35K price, which speaker gives 70-75% probability.