LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“if given all the circumstances the best case scenario might be 2,000 for sales for like I guess production slash deliveries”@ 1:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishFUD articles cite August's estimated 660 US sales as bearish but the speaker notes Lucid guided for seasonal softness and previously surprised positively in the same situation. Speaker projects best case ~2,000 Q3 production/deliveries. Long-term bullish on the planned new model variants by 2030 and Lucid technology's appeal as a licensing play for struggling OEMs.
Key arguments
- Lucid previously guided for seasonal Q3 softness and then surprised positively
- OEMs struggling with EVs (Ford, GM) make Lucid technology licensing more attractive
- Two new Lucid model variants planned by 2030 per reports
- Shorts overextended at 27.85% float, 249.99M shares short
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- August US sales estimated at only 660 units, articles citing this as bearish
- Cash burn concerns remain a recurring negative narrative
The call
- Date said
- Sep 7, 2024
- Deadline
- Sep 30, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $35.70
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.