LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$10.50
“From a bull standpoint, you see a consensus for this upcoming week for it to be between that 10.50 and 11.”@ 5:43 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe coming week is binary for LCID — Iran peace news would drive a move to at minimum the 200-day MA, while further escalation retests $9.50. Shorts have been steadily returning from their 36% peak (now 32.29%), suggesting they see the stock as less attractive to short. The 50-day MA at $10.38 was rejected Friday and is the key hurdle to clear. Uber partnership infrastructure is a significant long-term positive.
Key arguments
- Shorts retreating from 36% peak to 32.29% — recognizing they're overextended
- 50-day MA at $10.38 is the key resistance — last time it broke above, it also broke the 200-day MA
- Iran ceasefire would be huge catalyst — market would buy everything indiscriminately
- Uber partnership gives Lucid access to massive parking, routing, and infrastructure network
- DTC 6.25 days — overextended shorts still present short squeeze fuel
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bears targeting sub-$9.50; bulls targeting $10.50-$11
- 50-day MA rejected on Friday — momentum stalled
The call
- Date said
- Mar 21, 2026
- Deadline
- Mar 27, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $10.06
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $10.68
- Return
- +6.2%
- Notes
- Target ≥$10.5 reached on 2026-03-25. Price: $10.68. Return: +6.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$10.5 reached on 2026-03-25. Price: $10.68. Return: +6.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.