TSLA bullish call by Randy Kirk

TSLABullunverifiable

“Well, I'm not sure why anybody thinks the future of this business is going to anybody other than Tesla.”

Thesis at the time

Strongly Bullish

The speaker argues Tesla's Cyber Cab has an enormous structural cost advantage over rivals like Waymo due to near-negligible depreciation and lost-opportunity costs when idle, allowing Tesla to flood markets with vehicles at minimal expense. He believes Tesla's per-mile robotaxi economics (around 20 cents) vastly undercut Waymo (60-80 cents), and that Tesla could scale to millions of robotaxis far faster than any competitor, making it the dominant force in the space.

Key arguments

Cyber Cab depreciation and lost-opportunity costs are negligible when idle, letting Tesla 'flood the zone' with cars in more locations for better customer service.
Fully ramped cost per mile for Cyber Cab is about 20 cents versus 60-80 cents for Waymo, giving Tesla a durable margin advantage.
Tesla could theoretically produce 2.5 million robotaxis next year and has 10 million existing vehicles that could join the fleet, dwarfing Waymo's roughly 4,000 vehicles.
Elon Musk's G20 remarks tied Tesla's self-driving tech to broader AI economic gains, reinforcing the long-term growth narrative.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

Some reports point to disappointing August vehicle registration numbers in Norway and Sweden, though the speaker dismisses this as one-month noise.
There is unresolved debate over how to properly account for depreciation on days when robotaxis are idle or underutilized.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Jobs report data is acknowledged as unreliable (40-70% margin of error)
Tesla stock followed market with no follow-through from Cybercab announcement
European sales data shows mixed results with significant declines in some markets (Norway -79%, Sweden -41%)
Cybercab economics based on assumptions about mileage and residual value
Geopolitical tensions (Iran) creating market volatility and knee-jerk reactions
Monthly registration data acknowledged as unreliable for trend analysis