Behind the video
SpaceX Reveals Huge Telcom Deal; Tesla Coiled Spring
Overall Thesis
Kirk considers the post-election declines in Tesla and SpaceX excessive relative to their business prospects and expects both stocks to recover. He sees SpaceX's infrastructure flexibility, satellite business and new commercial opportunities as reasons for optimism, with a more substantial advance possible after unlock pressure and fourth-quarter results.
Narratives
TSLATeslaKirk views Tesla's election-related decline as driven by concern about Musk rather than deterioration in Tesla's business. He expects the stock to recover, while leaving the timing open.
Key Arguments
- Kirk sees no direct election impact on robotaxis, Optimus or car sales.
- He expects Musk to accommodate political demands without losing his ability to run the businesses.
- He regards the selloff as disconnected from Tesla's underlying prospects.
Risks acknowledged
- Investors may worry that repeated congressional appearances will distract Musk.
- A recovery may take longer than the immediate aftermath of the election.
Predictions (1)
SPCXSpaceXKirk argues that SpaceX's decline overlooks its satellite business, AI infrastructure optionality and new commercial announcements. He expects eventual stock recovery and separately suggests a substantial increase once unlock pressure passes and fourth-quarter results arrive.
Key Arguments
- Kirk argues that data-center rental opportunities were absent from the IPO valuation and remain inadequately reflected in the stock.
- He highlights flexibility between terrestrial and orbital infrastructure and between renting compute and using it internally.
- He views the Qualcomm agreement and orbital pharmaceutical manufacturing announcement as significant positive developments.
- He expects existing permits, alternative locations and Texas's economic incentives to support continued data-center construction.
- He identifies unlock-related selling as a possible explanation for the stock's retracement.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock remains weak despite positive announcements.
- Unlock periods may create selling pressure.
- Texas policy changes could introduce additional costs or delays.
- Orbital manufacturing details and some prospective applications remain uncertain.
QCOMQualcommKirk highlights Qualcomm's agreement with SpaceX as a significant commercial development involving telecommunications infrastructure. The discussion supports operational optimism but contains no forecast or recommendation for Qualcomm shares.
Key Arguments
- The discussion describes cooperation using Qualcomm chips across thousands of cell towers and other locations.
- Independent tower ownership is presented as facilitating access for SpaceX.
Hedges & Caveats
- The timing of a recovery is uncertain; next week and next month are presented as possibilities rather than deadlines.
- Congressional hearings could consume Musk's time even though Kirk doubts they would materially impair the businesses.
- New Texas permitting requirements could slow data-center development somewhat.
- Kirk identifies a potential union requirement as a concern but doubts it could be imposed.
- The SpaceX upside call after unlock periods and fourth-quarter results uses tentative language.
- Some orbital manufacturing applications are described as rumored or uncertain.