Behind the video
My UPDATED 2025 Tesla Stock Price Model REDUCES RISK
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi walks through his updated discounted cash flow model for Tesla, lowers robotaxi risk after FSD v13 and the Trump political tailwind, and raises his 2030 price target to $11,600 per share while publishing annual fair-value steps including $717 in 2025 and $1,300 in 2026 that he argues Wall Street will be forced to adopt.
Narratives
TSLATeslaThe updated DCF model with lower robotaxi risk yields an expected Tesla price of $11,600 by 2030, with annual fair-value ramp implying $717 in 2025 and $1,300 in 2026, driven primarily by Optimus scaling to a 1 billion per year run rate by 2039.
Key Arguments
- Robotaxi technology risk lowered from 30% to 15% after FSD v13 progress.
- Political risk lowered from 15% to 5% given Trump administration posture.
- Optimus at $12K RaaS undercuts advanced-nation factory labor by 80%.
- Wall Street will be forced to adopt this methodology because public YouTube/X models keep being right.
Risks acknowledged
- 2025-2027 ramp numbers are the decisive risk; failure to hit 100K robotaxis by 2028 would undermine the model.
- Optimus competition from China and Figure is higher risk than robotaxi.
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —