Tesla Stock is about to MOVE BIG Tomorrow..
Overall Thesis
Tesla stock is likely to experience significant volatility (5-7% move) tomorrow based on CPI data and Fed rate hike expectations, with broader market concerns driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
Narratives
The host is nervous about a near-term market correction driven by CPI, a likely Fed rate hike, and rising oil prices, and believes Tesla would not be spared if the broader market drops. Longer-term, he remains very bullish on Tesla, expecting 2027 to be a breakout year as robotaxi and Optimus scale and Tesla dominates the humanoid robotics market.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is a top contender for new capital if markets correct, but would fall along with the broader market in a crash.
- 2027 could be a blockbuster year for Tesla as robotaxi scales and Optimus reaches the market.
- Tesla is far ahead of any competitor (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia) in humanoid robotics and FSD, making it the likely winner of the AI/robotics trade regardless of political headwinds on data centers.
- He plans to buy the dip in Tesla around the 330s, with bigger buy points in the low 300s and a potential bottom between 250 and 300 in a broader market correction.
The host believes oil prices will keep climbing due to the ongoing Iran war and Houthi threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is a key driver of expected Fed rate hikes. He sees this oil price rise as an ongoing risk into the winter months.
Key Arguments
- Oil is near $100 a barrel with no signs of stopping, and this is a key reason markets are pricing in a Fed rate hike.
- The Houthis could cut off oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing oil prices even higher.
- Rising oil costs will eventually seep into headline and core inflation metrics over a medium-term horizon.
Predictions (1)
The host describes a past trade where he viewed Elf as an asymmetrical opportunity at $40-50 a share, but now views it as fairly valued around $100-110 and has taken profits. No forward-looking prediction was made about Elf's future price.
Key Arguments
- Elf was previously viewed as undervalued at $40-50 a share and has more than doubled in three months.
- The host has already taken profits, viewing the current price as fairly valued.
Hedges & Caveats
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Nothing is a guarantee at this point
- CPI forecast estimates vary widely across major banks (0.16% to 0.24%)
- Rate hike probability is data-dependent and subject to change
- Oil prices and geopolitical factors add uncertainty to market direction