Why Tesla Earnings GREENLIGHT 2025 Stock EXPLOSION!
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 95%
Overall Thesis
Following Tesla's Q1 earnings call, Jo Bhakdi raises his fair-value share price targets to $1,000 for end-2025 and ~$2,000 for 2026, citing the confirmed June Austin robotaxi launch with Model Ys, sub-$30K stripped down Model 3/Y, and Cyber Cab scale production in Q1 2026. He assigns 95% probability to a $1,000 share price this year assuming a non-disastrous June launch.
Narratives
TSLATesla
Strongly BullishPost-earnings model update increases near-term targets: $1,000 by end-2025 and $2,000 for 2026 assuming June robotaxi launch succeeds, with Austin ride-hail market destroyed in Q4 2025 and FSD autopay adoption driving an EBITDA jump.
Key Arguments
- June launch: 10-20 Model Ys day one, scalable to 100+ within weeks once validated.
- Fair value share price today is ~$900 vs market ~$250 - a $693 discount.
- End-2025 fair value: $1,000; 2026 fair value: $2,000; 2030: $11,800.
- 95% probability Uber is dead in Austin by Q4 2025 if June launch succeeds.
- 95% probability of 1,000 share price this year contingent on June launch not being a disaster.
- EBITDA trajectory: 2027 $36B, 2028 $166B, 2029 $348B driven by robotaxi scale.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $11,800by 2030
pendingDetails
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —