TubeRankBehind the video
Holy Sh*t Tesla
Overall Thesis
Kevin argues that Tesla's delivery beat and near-prior-year volumes despite the loss of EV tax credits demonstrate pricing power and support a bottoming thesis. He sees upside from vehicle sales, FSD recurring revenue, Cybercab advertising, and potentially lower yields and an Iran deal, while acknowledging expensive valuation and Chinese competition.
Narratives
TSLATeslaKevin views the delivery beat as evidence of resilient demand and pricing power, supporting a bottoming process in Tesla shares. His long-term model centers on vehicle sales, with additional benefits from FSD subscriptions and Cybercab visibility, while an Iran deal and peak yields could provide nearer-term catalysts.
Key Arguments
- Deliveries of 486,532 were approximately 2.13% below the prior year's tax-credit-supported quarter and beat expectations by about 5%.
- Cybercabs provide advertising that could encourage purchases of existing Tesla vehicles and FSD subscriptions.
- Recurring FSD revenue could attract a higher valuation multiple.
- Vehicle sales remain the principal contributor to operating income in his model.
- His 2030 model assumes growth toward four million annual vehicle sales.
- Shares have repeatedly stabilized above approximately $347.
Risks acknowledged
- The current delivery pace remains below the four-million-vehicle annual objective.
- The modeled vehicle margins are elevated, and lower margins reduce expected returns.
- Cybercab rollout requires further work and time.
- Energy storage missed expectations.
- Chinese competition could reduce market share.
- Tesla's forward earnings multiple and PEG ratio remain expensive.
Predictions (1)
ENPHEnphase EnergyKevin sees Enphase as a potential beneficiary of peak yields and an Iran deal, with additional speculative upside from data center converters. He describes the company as potentially inexpensive after a prolonged decline, while criticizing its app and its performance in a high-rate environment.
Key Arguments
- Enphase is sensitive to interest rates and could benefit if yields have peaked.
- Shares have declined substantially through the rate-hiking cycle and may be bottoming.
- A roughly $4.4 billion valuation appears inexpensive to him if the macro and data center theses work.
- Data center converters provide a speculative additional opportunity.
Risks acknowledged
- High interest rates have made Enphase an unattractive stock.
- The data center opportunity is uncertain.
- Its app is slower and less appealing than Tesla's.
- The bullish valuation thesis depends on peak yields and successful execution.
Predictions (1)
"And Nphase might as well."
NVDANvidiaKevin describes Nvidia as inexpensive and emphasizes its opportunities in robotics and the vehicle economy alongside frontier chips. He highlights its breakout above the $227 level, but provides no new explicit price target or timed forecast.
Key Arguments
- He considers Nvidia inexpensive relative to its opportunities.
- Robotics and vehicle-related applications broaden its growth avenues.
- Frontier chips remain a high-margin business.
- Shares are described as reaching all-time highs and breaking above $227.
AVGOBroadcomKevin uses Broadcom as a valuation comparison to illustrate Tesla's relatively expensive PEG ratio. He describes Broadcom as an ASIC, photonics, and copper-related opportunity with a substantially lower PEG ratio, without making a directional forecast.
Key Arguments
- Its cited PEG ratio is substantially lower than Tesla's.
- He associates its business with ASIC design, photonics, and copper.
Hedges & Caveats
- Tesla's long-term valuation depends on achieving higher vehicle volumes and strong margins.
- Lower vehicle margins reduce the modeled annual return.
- Cybercab deployment across cities and countries will take time.
- Tesla's energy storage results missed expectations.
- Chinese competition threatens Tesla's European sales and could pose a larger threat if it enters the United States.
- Tesla trades at an elevated forward earnings multiple and PEG ratio.
- The interest-rate-driven upside depends on Kevin's peak-yields call proving correct.
- Enphase's data center opportunity remains uncertain.