Behind the video
Q4 Expectations for Rivian & Lucid ⚠️ What Will Wall Street Expect │ Must Watch Video
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentNeutralStrength: 35%
Overall Thesis
The speaker previews Q4 expectations for Lucid and Rivian, expecting Lucid to hit its 18,000 production target for a 5–10% pop while warning the delivery lag and 2026 guidance will be equally important to Wall Street.
Narratives
LCIDLucid MotorsA New Year's Day preview of Q4 expectations for Lucid and Rivian. Lucid is down 65% for 2025. The speaker believes Lucid will hit its 18,000 production target but notes the persistent problem of deliveries lagging production (a pattern since 2022). Hitting the number would be a 5–10% pop, while missing would cause a 2–4% red day. 2026 guidance for ~40,000 units is what Wall Street will really be watching for.
Key Arguments
- Lucid down 65% in 2025 vs Rivian up 48%, Tesla up 11%, S&P up 16%
- Q4 numbers expected early January; needs ~10,000 production for 18,000 full-year target
- Delivery-production gap is a persistent pattern (2022-2025) — market will scrutinize
- 5–10% pop if target hit; 2–4% red if missed
- 2026 targets (ideally ~40,000) and guidance will be the real market mover
- Speaker expects Rivian to fall slightly short at ~40,000 deliveries
Risks acknowledged
- CEO saying 1,000 vehicles per week should make 18K achievable
Predictions (1)
Bull
Not scoredDetails
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