Behind the video
Tesla Q1 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q1-24)
Overall Thesis
Rob Maurer walks through Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings, noting revenue and operating margin came in below consensus due to lower deliveries and Giga Berlin/Model 3 Highland disruptions, but resilient ASPs and energy storage margins. He frames the accelerated, more capex-efficient launch of new affordable models as the catalyst for the day's stock rally and reiterates a long-term bullish stance centered on AI compute growth, FSD progress, and energy storage expansion.
Narratives
TSLATeslaMaurer views the Q1 miss on revenue and margins as a near-term blip relative to Tesla's long-term trajectory, pointing to resilient ASPs, improving energy storage margins, and a 130%+ QoQ jump in AI training compute as evidence the autonomy and energy stories are strengthening. He remains a long-term holder, reiterating that single quarters have historically been poor indicators of Tesla's multi-year performance.
Key Arguments
- Revenue and operating margin missed consensus but ASP held up well quarter-over-quarter despite Giga Berlin arson attack and Model 3 Highland ramp disruptions
- Energy storage gross margin jumped to 24.6% with record 4.1 GWh deployed, making energy an increasingly profitable part of the business
- AI training compute grew over 130% quarter-over-quarter, roughly an order of magnitude more than six to eight months prior, which could accelerate FSD v12+ progress
- Accelerated, more capex-efficient launch of new, more affordable models ahead of the prior second-half-2025 timeline, using current and next-gen platform elements
- Historical precedent (Q1 2019 vs. subsequent 2020-2021 rally) shows single-quarter weakness has not been predictive of Tesla's multi-year stock performance
Risks acknowledged
- EV adoption remains under pressure globally, especially outside China, pressuring deliveries and market share
- The new vehicle plan achieves less cost reduction than the full unboxed next-gen platform approach would have
- Announcing updated Model 3/new vehicle plans could trigger an Osborne effect that pauses near-term demand
- Robotaxi prioritization over a next-gen low-cost vehicle carries execution and timing risk
Hedges & Caveats
- Did not build a full pre-earnings forecast model this quarter, unlike usual
- Single-quarter results are historically poor predictors of Tesla's multi-year trajectory
- Execution risk remains on the accelerated vehicle launch timeline and robotaxi unveil
- Global EV demand remains under pressure, especially outside China
- Possible Osborne effect from announcing updated/new vehicle plans