Behind the video
THIS Tesla Share Price Model PREDICTS the Future
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 80%
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi unveils his risk-adjusted Tesla share-price model, which introduces discrete risk discounts (competition, key man, tech, demand, regulatory) on top of a 10-year DCF with a 7% discount rate. The model places current 2024 fair value at ~$328 and 2025 fair value between $640 and ~$1,000 per share, arguing Tesla is not overvalued and will reach very large multi-trillion free-cash-flow levels by 2031 with 3.5B Optimus units and 230M robotaxis by 2040.
Narratives
TSLATeslaRisk-adjusted DCF places Tesla 2025 fair value in a $640-$1,000 range, with 2024 fair value around $328, supporting continued accumulation as risks derisk over time.
Key Arguments
- 10-year DCF at 7% discount rate with explicit risk haircuts yields 2024 fair value ~$328.
- 2025 fair value falls between $640 and ~$1,000 depending on how quickly risks come down.
- Assumes 3.5 billion Optimus robots and 230 million robotaxis deployed by 2040.
- Optimus ramp of 10,000 units in 2026 -> 100,000 in 2027 is 'mildly aggressive'.
- Regulatory risk on Tesla is 'super low' now with Trump.
Risks acknowledged
- 36% probability Optimus doesn't happen; 44% probability robotaxi doesn't.
- 2% key-man risk on Elon.
- FSD needs to be effectively 'infinitely' safer than humans, implying higher tech risk.
- Wall Street could stay irrational in the mid-term.
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —