Why Tesla Got Its FIRST REAL Competitor
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi remains a long-term Tesla bull but highlights Chinese EV maker XPeng as Tesla's first serious competitor across all three verticals: EVs, humanoid robots (Iron), and flying cars. He argues Tesla still has tech, scale, money, and geopolitical moat advantages in the US and Europe, but XPeng is a credible number two in contested markets like China, Russia, India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America.
Narratives
Tesla remains the global leader in embodied AI, autonomy and humanoid robots, with a tech, scale, money, and geopolitical security moat in Western markets. Bhakdi is confident Elon will win but acknowledges XPeng is a legitimate number-two competitor in contested international markets. Tesla's Optimus targets a million robots by 2030 and a roadster demo is coming next year.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is leading the world in embodied AI, autonomy, robotaxis, and humanoid robots
- Tesla has tech advantage, scale advantage, money advantage plus regional security moats in US and Europe
- Elon has shown respect for Chinese manufacturing and robotics, which Bhakdi takes as validation Tesla takes competition seriously
- Optimus program is aiming at a million robots by 2030
- Next year Tesla will do a roadster demo
XPeng is Bhakdi's official pick for Tesla's number-one competitor in embodied AI with three serious verticals: EVs (nearly break-even, 100% YoY revenue growth), the Iron humanoid robot with 82 degrees of freedom and lifelike motion, and flying cars being deployed in Dubai. CEO is a smart Alibaba veteran with a computer science background.
Key Arguments
- Q3 2025 saw 100% year-over-year revenue growth
- Delivered 116,000 vehicles in the quarter with revenues of 2.86 billion USD
- Iron humanoid robot has 22 degrees of freedom per hand and 82 total body degrees of freedom
- Iron mass production preparations planned to begin around April 2026 with large-scale manufacturing targeted by end of 2026
- XPeng is the world leader in flying cars, already deploying in Dubai
- CEO He Xiaopeng is former Alibaba Mobile Business Group president and UCWeb co-founder with computer science background