Why I Am MUCH LESS Concerned About Tesla Robotaxi Now (Waymo Disasters)

Jo BhakdiJul 15, 2025Watch on YouTube ↗

Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 65%

Overall Thesis

Waymo's 696 documented crashes (including serious injuries and a fatality) establish a statistical baseline that removes the binary existential risk for Tesla robotaxi: as long as Tesla's safety numbers are no worse than Waymo's, the inevitable first crash is unlikely to kill the program.

Narratives

TSLATesla

Bullish

Waymo's extensive crash record (696 incidents including serious injuries and a 2025 fatality) establishes a regulatory benchmark that de-risks Tesla robotaxi, removing the binary existential threat of the first crash and reinforcing the bullish case.

Key Arguments

Waymo has 696 documented crashes with three serious injuries and one fatality.
Waymo crash rate appears to be outpacing fleet growth, suggesting scaling trade-off.
Existence of Waymo safety data gives Tesla a regulatory floor to measure against.
Binary narrative 'first accident = end of robotaxi' no longer applies.

GOOGLAlphabet (Waymo)

Bearish

Waymo appears to be panicking and scaling aggressively in response to Tesla competition, increasing its crash rate disproportionately to fleet growth and undermining its safety-first positioning.

Key Arguments

Waymo crashes rose 8x since March 2024 while fleet may have only 2-3x'd.
Aggressive expansion into Georgia and Austin suggests panic response to Tesla.

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