Behind the video
Retail Gave Up On Tesla, Institutions Didn’t! Here’s Why!
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%
Overall Thesis
Institutional investors are accumulating Tesla stock while retail has abandoned it, presenting a contrarian buying opportunity with price targets of $379 in the short term and $490 near all-time highs this year.
Narratives
TSLATeslaJoe Bhakdi argues Tesla's stock is set for a sharp rebound as the Cybercab robotaxi launch, aggressive production ramp, and continued institutional buying (even as retail capitulates near 12-month lows) signal an imminent re-rating back toward all-time highs. He frames the current retail sell-off and low volume as a classic capitulation bottom rather than a reason for concern.
Key Arguments
- Institutions are buying aggressively while retail ownership has fallen to 15.8%, which he views as a contrarian bullish signal near 12-month lows.
- Tesla is rapidly ramping Cybercab production (potentially 2,000+ units per month by September) and building out robotaxi charging infrastructure, including new wireless charging stalls in Austin.
- He believes stock prices are a function of mass psychology, and that capitulation bottoms are typically followed by sharp reversals once sentiment shifts.
- FSD progress is compared to predictable AI/compute scaling rather than an uncertain science project like fusion, giving him confidence in the trajectory of the robotaxi ramp.
Risks acknowledged
- Acknowledges the robotaxi rollout will remain slow and cautious, with possibly only a few hundred to a few thousand cars deployed by year end.
- Notes wireless charging has been delayed for nearly a year and may continue to be delayed.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $375next three weeks
Not scoredDetails
"it just strengthens my 370 to 380 target super short-term target next three weeks uh position and that's why I'm doubling down a little bit right now."
Hedges & Caveats
- Launch and rollout of new products will likely be very painfully slow
- July was brutal for momentum stocks broadly, not just Tesla
- Retail investors have been moving away from single stocks into ETFs
- Guest acknowledges previous bearish call and timing risks in earnings periods
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