Why Tesla Stock Is GETTING READY To 12x From Here
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 95%
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi reveals his updated DCF model with a 2028 fair value share price of $4,599 for Tesla, based on 100,000 robotaxis in 2026 and a robot-as-a-service model for Optimus. He argues the stock will 12x from here as robotaxi and Optimus revenue streams dominate the business by 2027-2028.
Narratives
TSLATesla
Strongly BullishTesla's DCF fair value reaches $4,599 by 2028 as robotaxi and Optimus revenue streams dominate EBITDA by 2027, making traditional PE analysis meaningless. The core business becomes a rounding error by 2029.
Key Arguments
- 100,000 robotaxis projected for 2026, 750,000 for 2027, 2M for 2028.
- 220 million global robotaxi install base by 2040.
- Optimus at $1,000/month as RaaS yields $12k annual margin per robot.
- Robotaxi becomes 33-50% of EBITDA by 2027; core becomes rounding error by 2029.
- Robotaxi launch June 12 is imminent catalyst.
- FSD will be commoditized from frontier models in 2028 but only Tesla has the fleet and infrastructure.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $4,5992028 fair share price
pendingDetails
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —