Behind the video
Even I’m Getting Nervous
Overall Thesis
Kevin expects a strong stock-market rally following an Iran deal and remains bullish for at least roughly the next year, arguing that rising GPU rental rates and AI infrastructure demand undermine an imminent depreciation-driven collapse. His longer-term concern is that agentic AI will displace workers, eventually weakening consumption, stocks and capital-expenditure funding; these broad market calls do not identify a specific public index or security.
Narratives
NVDANvidiaKevin argues that increasing rental rates for multiple generations of Nvidia GPUs contradict claims that a depreciation cliff is already undermining AI infrastructure economics. This is an operational demand thesis without a specific forecast or investment recommendation for Nvidia shares.
Key Arguments
- He reports A100 rental rates rising approximately 12.6% from December to the current period.
- He reports H100 rental rates increasing approximately 15% from the fourth quarter of 2025.
- He reports GB200 rental rates rising 39% from the end of 2025.
- Open-weight models and useful agentic AI are expanding demand for older GPUs.
- He argues that AI productivity gains are only beginning to materialize.
Risks acknowledged
- Chips ordinarily lose value as newer technology arrives.
- He agrees that depreciation will eventually contribute to problems in the AI cycle.
- He discusses circular capital spending as a concern raised by TS Lombard without adopting its imminent-collapse conclusion.
NBISNebius GroupKevin argues that Nebius's financial condition is better than bearish commentary suggests. He treats depreciation as central to its reported operating loss and disputes an imminent default narrative, without making a call on its shares.
Key Arguments
- He attributes the reported operating loss to chip depreciation.
- He argues that adding back depreciation makes the business profitable on that adjusted basis.
- He rejects Nebius as the immediate trigger for an AI-sector collapse.
Risks acknowledged
- The company reports an operating loss.
- Adding back depreciation does not eliminate the eventual economic risk of chip depreciation.
- He says he has no investment interest in Nebius.
SPCXSpaceXKevin presents SpaceX's AI-compute revenue and customer deposits as evidence of strong current infrastructure demand. He also warns that a future labor-market downturn could constrain the funding supporting this expansion, without predicting SpaceX's share price or return.
Key Arguments
- He says revenue from renting compute has approximately tripled.
- He cites additional prepayment deposits as evidence that hyperscaler demand is translating into financial commitments.
- He argues that current funding supports continued AI infrastructure expansion.
Risks acknowledged
- He acknowledges that some revenue reflects the deployment of capital spending.
- He expects a future labor-market downturn to weaken stock markets and infrastructure funding.
NFLXNetflixKevin cites reported Netflix layoffs as one example of emerging labor-market stress. He makes no investment recommendation or price forecast for Netflix.
Key Arguments
- He cites a reported reduction of 6% of the workforce.
- He places the example within a broader concern that the economy may eventually struggle to absorb layoffs.
Risks acknowledged
- He acknowledges that layoffs occur routinely in a large labor market and do not alone establish an economic downturn.
ORCLOracleKevin rejects the argument that Oracle is near default and could imminently bring down the AI investment cycle. He cites improving financial performance but gives no direction for Oracle's share price or investment return.
Key Arguments
- He says net income increased from $2.9 billion to $4.7 billion.
- He describes margins as stable.
- He argues that Oracle now has enough money to pay its bills.
Risks acknowledged
- He says concerns about Oracle's ability to pay its bills were previously fair.
- He explicitly says he does not own Oracle.
CRWVCoreWeaveKevin describes CoreWeave negatively and acknowledges financing issues. He considers those issues old news and insufficient to explain the broader economic risk, without recommending a trade or forecasting the stock's direction.
Key Arguments
- He identifies financing issues at CoreWeave.
- He argues that focusing on one small infrastructure provider distracts from broader labor-market risks.
Risks acknowledged
- He argues that AI infrastructure demand remains strong despite financing problems at individual providers.
Kevin uses ASML's expanding equipment backlog as an early indicator that semiconductor infrastructure spending is accelerating. His comments concern equipment demand and the AI investment cycle rather than ASML's share price.
Key Arguments
- He describes ASML's backlog as nearly tripling.
- He emphasizes the high cost of its chipmaking equipment.
- He argues that increasing equipment orders contradict an imminent AI capital-spending slowdown.
Risks acknowledged
- His broader thesis allows for a later capital-spending slowdown if labor-market weakness impairs funding.
Hedges & Caveats
- He acknowledges that chip depreciation will eventually become a problem but argues that its timing is premature.
- He says the labor market is not definitely going to roll over and describes current warning signs as early.
- His expected euphoric stock-market rally is conditional on an Iran deal.
- He distinguishes near-term bullishness from longer-term recession and funding risks.
- He discloses no ownership of Oracle and no investment interest in Nebius.
- His rate-hike prediction concerns a Kalshi event contract, with no qualifying public asset symbol identified.
- He expects technological change to create new jobs over the long term, after initial layoffs.