How the Latest Tesla FSD Leak IMPACTS the Stock
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 90%
Overall Thesis
Leaked Elon hackathon video confirms unsupervised FSD is effectively solved, safety drivers will be removed in Austin in 3 weeks, and a 10x larger model ships late February 2026. Jo expects tens of thousands of robotaxis by end of 2026 driving Tesla's stock much higher, with Waymo unable to compete on scaling or capex.
Narratives
TSLATesla
Strongly BullishElon confirmed FSD is essentially solved, Austin robotaxis lose safety drivers within 3 weeks, and a 10x larger FSD model arrives late February 2026 with chain-of-thought reasoning to follow. Jo models 1,800 robotaxi FTEs as the free-cash-flow inflection point hitting April 2026, and expects tens of thousands of robotaxis by end of 2026 with Tesla producing a car every 28 seconds versus Waymo's manually assembled Jaguars.
Key Arguments
- Elon says FSD is 'pretty much solved' and safety drivers removed in Austin in 3 weeks
- 10x larger FSD model shipping late February 2026
- Chain-of-thought reasoning adds context and memory to FSD
- Hardware 4 capable of 10x better than human driver
- 1,800 robotaxi FTEs is FCF inflection point, April 2026
- Model target: 40,000 robotaxis by December 2026
- Tesla can produce a Cybercab every 28 seconds at 15,000 dollars COGS
- Waymo cars cost 100,000 dollars each, uneconomic to scale
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —