TubeRankBehind the video
The Market is About to Do Something Insane Next Week…
Overall Thesis
The host expects NVIDIA's upcoming earnings and guidance to drive substantial market moves, while favoring AMD for stronger growth and relative stock performance. He presents Estée Lauder as a recovery investment with downside protection and Celsius as his strongest prospective return opportunity, alongside bullish views on SoFi, Honest, Netflix, and American Express.
Narratives
NVDANVIDIANVIDIA's earnings are a major market catalyst, but the host believes strong headline growth alone will not satisfy investors. He considers its valuation reasonable while warning that a modest beat or in-line guidance could disappoint and that future growth stagnation could pressure its valuation.
Key Arguments
- The host says results need approximately $94 billion or more in revenue, EPS of $2.25 or better, and guidance around $109 billion or better to support upside.
- NVIDIA's large market capitalization gives its earnings broad influence over technology stocks, semiconductors, and major market benchmarks.
- Forward earnings multiples cited by the host are relatively modest compared with current growth.
- AMD can grow rapidly from a smaller base without immediately threatening NVIDIA's business.
Risks acknowledged
- Expectations are unusually high, requiring substantial beats rather than merely meeting consensus.
- Slower future revenue growth could lead investors to pay lower earnings multiples.
- The host explicitly says NVIDIA is not necessarily doomed despite preferring AMD.
Predictions (1)
"Here's the numbers that it actually need Nvidia needs to do to likely have that stock go higher. Okay, Nvidia needs to come in with $94 billion or more of revenue for this last quarter. They need to come in with EPS of$ 225 or better."
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesThe host expects AMD's growth rate to surpass NVIDIA's substantially and reiterates that AMD should outperform NVIDIA's stock over the next year or two. He argues that AMD's smaller revenue base allows substantial growth without requiring immediate competitive displacement of NVIDIA.
Key Arguments
- The host expects next-quarter revenue above the approximately $13 billion expectations he cites.
- He expects next-year growth to exceed the cited 60% to 65% range.
- A smaller revenue base gives AMD room to expand independently of NVIDIA.
- He owns a large AMD position and prefers its prospective returns.
Risks acknowledged
- NVIDIA remains much larger and is not necessarily a failing investment.
- Competitive overlap could become more significant in two or three years.
Predictions (3)
"AMD's next quarter you know expectations are around $13 billion of revenue right I think they'll easily do 14 or more"
"Well, AMD's expected growth rate next year is going to be between 60 and 65%. I think they'll probably do a bigger number than that."
"You know, I made a call back around liberation day that AMD is going to dramatically outperform Nvidia over the next two or three years, right? And so far, that has played out to a te and it's going to play out a lot more over the next year or two as well."
ELThe Estée Lauder CompaniesThe host expects Estée Lauder's profit recovery and premium beauty brands to generate attractive returns through 2030. His base case projects 11% to 16% annualized returns, while even his bear case produces positive returns and a stronger profit recovery could yield much greater upside.
Key Arguments
- The profit recovery plan is already showing results according to the host.
- The bull case assumes 10% annual revenue growth and approximately $2.3 billion net income in 2030.
- The base case assumes 8% annual revenue growth and approximately $2 billion net income in 2030.
- The host expects premium brands and business quality to support relatively rich valuation multiples.
- Buybacks and acquisitions could increase returns beyond the modeled cases.
- His modeled bull-case net income remains below the company's cited historical peak.
Risks acknowledged
- The company previously required a turnaround.
- Base-case returns may appear less exciting than other opportunities.
- The modeled bear case assumes weak margins and lower valuation multiples.
- A return to historical profitability is conditional rather than assured.
Predictions (4)
"So under the scenario, I get 17 to 22% compounded annual growth rate, which is very solid."
"In this scenario, I still get a double digit return 11% to 16% Kaggar."
"My bare case my bare case for E still has a stock going higher over the next few years."
"Well, if they get around a $3 billion number, then the market cap's probably going 90 billion, right? Because you say 30 PE out of $3 billion net income, right? Probably going $90 billion market cap. So we're talking about that's like 200% upside from here, right?"
CELHCelsius HoldingsThe host calls Celsius his strongest prospective return opportunity and is considering investing another $50,000 next week. He expects substantial long-term upside from modest revenue growth assumptions and sees additional potential if margins approach beverage peers.
Key Arguments
- The company owns Celsius, Alani, and Rockstar, creating multiple avenues for growth.
- International distribution, additional distribution points, better sell-through, and pricing could support revenue expansion.
- The base case assumes only 10% annual revenue growth from 2027 through 2030.
- Both primary scenarios assume 14% net income margins, below the beverage peers cited by the host.
- Acquisitions and buybacks are excluded from the primary return estimates.
Risks acknowledged
- The proposed purchase is tentative.
- Projected returns depend on the scenarios actually occurring.
- Higher-margin upside depends on material profitability improvements.
- PepsiCo's lower margin is acknowledged, although the host attributes it to its food business.
Predictions (3)
"If that baby scenario plays out, that baby scenario, this stock still gives me a competent annual growth rate deep in the 20s."
"If based upon where my projections are for this company over the next several years, if we look at my bull case for Celsius, this stock should have a compounding annual growth rate if this comes true, my bull case, right, of you know 30 to 40%."
"If they get to a 20% income margin or even 18% or or 22%. Like you got to understand the upside for the stock is likely a 50% kaggar per year over the next several years."
SOFISoFi TechnologiesThe host believes SoFi retains substantial long-term upside despite its recent gains. He places it behind Celsius among his highest prospective reward opportunities and expects a share price above $50 if the business follows his anticipated path.
Key Arguments
- Recent gains have approximately doubled his position's value.
- He believes a price in the teens still offers substantial long-term upside.
- He ranks SoFi highly among his preferred current opportunities.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock has already risen substantially.
- The price forecast depends on the company following his expected trajectory.
Predictions (1)
"Like, that's, you know, a stock if SoFi goes where I think it's going over the next several years, like it's going to be a $50 plus stock, right?"
The host expects NVIDIA's upcoming results to influence the broader market significantly. Strong revenue and guidance beats could support upside, while roughly in-line guidance could weaken the S&P 500 because of NVIDIA's index weight.
Key Arguments
- NVIDIA has a large index weight.
- The earnings report is presented as a major near-term market catalyst.
Risks acknowledged
- The direction depends on results relative to high expectations.
- Both upside and downside outcomes are possible.
Predictions (2)
"Nvidia, as long as they come in with several billion dollar beat on revenue, several billion dollar beat on guide, we're in the clear. The the the top of the market can move higher."
"If that guide is just roughly in line, it that's [sighs] that could definitely weaken the market because you got to understand Nvidia is such a big market cap. can bring down the Q's. It can bring down the S&P 500."
The host identifies the Q's as vulnerable to disappointing NVIDIA guidance. This is a conditional near-term risk stemming from NVIDIA's large benchmark weight rather than a standalone long-term bearish view.
Key Arguments
- NVIDIA's size can transmit an earnings disappointment to the fund.
- Roughly in-line guidance may fail to satisfy elevated expectations.
Risks acknowledged
- A large beat could instead support the market.
Predictions (1)
"If that guide is just roughly in line, it that's [sighs] that could definitely weaken the market because you got to understand Nvidia is such a big market cap. can bring down the Q's."
NFLXNetflixThe host views Netflix as an attractive current investment with a superior long-term business model and lower cited earnings multiples than Walmart. He repeatedly describes prospective gains as easy money.
Key Arguments
- Cited forward multiples are lower than Walmart's.
- The host favors Netflix's long-term business model.
- Netflix appears among his five preferred stocks to evaluate now.
Predictions (1)
"Netflix, easy money."
AXPAmerican ExpressThe host prefers American Express to Walmart because of its business model and lower valuation. He includes it among his preferred current opportunities and expresses confidence in future investment gains.
Key Arguments
- Cited forward earnings multiples are below Walmart's.
- The host calls its business model one of the best in the world.
- It is among his five preferred stocks to evaluate now.
Predictions (1)
"American Express, easy money, you know?"
HNSTThe Honest CompanyThe host considers Honest an unusually attractive valuation opportunity for long-term investors. He believes it has the best risk-reward profile among companies with market capitalizations below $1 billion.
Key Arguments
- Included among five preferred stocks to evaluate now.
- Described as a bargain for long-term investors.
- The host strongly favors its relative risk-reward profile.
The host argues that Walmart's underlying operating results were much stronger than its declining reported net income suggested. Nevertheless, he finds the stock's valuation unattractive compared with other opportunities.
Key Arguments
- Revenue growth exceeded cost-of-sales growth.
- Operating income increased approximately 28.8% according to the transcript.
- One-off items distorted the year-over-year net income comparison.
- The host cites high forward earnings multiples relative to preferred alternatives.
Risks acknowledged
- Reported net income and EPS declined.
- SG&A grew slightly faster than revenue.
- Strong operations do not automatically make the shares attractively priced.
MUMicron TechnologyMicron serves as an example of how low semiconductor valuations can reflect concern about future growth peaking. The host describes market concerns rather than making a firm Micron-specific price prediction.
Key Arguments
- The host cites low forward earnings multiples.
- Memory companies may receive lower valuations when investors anticipate growth flattening.
Risks acknowledged
- Growth-peaking concerns are attributed to other investors.
- NVIDIA usually commands a richer valuation than memory companies.
CAKEThe Cheesecake FactoryThe host celebrates recent gains in his Cheesecake Factory position. His comments describe current and historical performance without a distinct forward target or timeframe.
Key Arguments
- The position has substantial unrealized gains.
- The stock contributed further gains on the day discussed.
ELFe.l.f. BeautyThe host uses e.l.f. Beauty's recent gains to illustrate the opportunities available in beauty companies. He distinguishes its lower-priced products from Estée Lauder's premium positioning.
Key Arguments
- The stock more than doubled over the recent period cited.
- Beauty investments may be overlooked by a predominantly male investor audience.
- Its lower-price market positioning differs from Estée Lauder's.
The host cites Ulta as one of the strongest historical stock performers during his investing career. It supports his argument that investors should consider consumer businesses beyond technology.
Key Arguments
- Strong historical returns cited by the host.
- Female-focused businesses can be overlooked by investors who do not personally identify with their products.
The host acknowledges Lululemon's past strength as an investment while suggesting that its brand has weakened. He provides no forward investment forecast.
Key Arguments
- Historically strong stock returns.
- The host believes the company has lost some brand strength.
Risks acknowledged
- Past strong performance is qualified by concern about current brand positioning.
The host uses Ferrari to explain that liking a product does not establish an attractive investment case. He does not forecast Ferrari's future share performance.
Key Arguments
- Personal product affinity alone is insufficient evidence for prospective stock returns.
Monster Beverage is cited as a profitability benchmark for Celsius. Its margins support the host's argument that Celsius could eventually exceed his modeled profitability assumptions.
Key Arguments
- The host cites approximately 23% net income margins.
- Its beverage-only business provides a comparison for Celsius.
Coca-Cola is used as a margin benchmark rather than a standalone investment recommendation. The host cites its profitability to illustrate potential long-term margin upside for Celsius.
Key Arguments
- The host cites approximately 28% net income margins.
- Its beverage-focused business is compared with Celsius.
The host acknowledges PepsiCo's lower net income margin as a counterpoint to his Celsius margin argument. He attributes the difference to PepsiCo's substantial food and snack operations.
Key Arguments
- The host cites approximately 11% net income margins.
- The food and snack business is said to weigh on consolidated margins.
Risks acknowledged
- Its lower profitability demonstrates that not every beverage-related company achieves margins above 20%.
- Its business mix limits direct comparability with Celsius.
Hedges & Caveats
- NVIDIA must exceed already high expectations by several billion dollars; roughly in-line guidance could weaken the market.
- Estée Lauder and Celsius return estimates depend on modeled revenue growth, profitability, and valuation assumptions.
- The possible $50,000 Celsius purchase is tentative.
- Acquisitions and share buybacks are potential additional benefits rather than guaranteed outcomes.
- Semiconductor valuations can compress when investors anticipate growth peaking.
- The host distinguishes historical stock performance from prospective returns and cautions against buying a company merely because its products appeal to the investor.