Why SpaceX Will SKYROCKET After 2027
Overall Thesis
SpaceX will experience significant growth after 2027 by deploying AI compute satellites to solve the global inference compute bottleneck, with Nvidia partnership and planned launches in 2025.
Narratives
Joe views Tesla as dramatically undervalued despite recent weakness, citing depressed sentiment, an unpriced Cybercab scaling catalyst, and a belief the stock will reclaim all-time highs this year. He describes increasing his Tesla exposure and endorsing a move out of Nvidia into Tesla.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is down 20% year to date while Cybercab scaling and deployment is beginning, which he calls a very good buying opportunity
- Depressed sentiment from prior investors being burned is itself bullish because it means more buyers can re-enter
- He is heavier in Tesla than in SpaceX and describes himself as extremely bullish on Tesla
Joe frames Nvidia as a major long-term beneficiary of an AI compute buildout that could move into space via a SpaceX partnership on custom Vera Rubin racks, calling it potentially 'the greatest boon' for the company. However, he acknowledges near-term weakness tied to an AI pacing scare and describes a recent options trade that went against him.
Key Arguments
- Nvidia is co-developing custom space-hardened Vera Rubin compute racks with SpaceX for AI satellites
- Unlimited inference compute demand could make Nvidia the primary beneficiary if space-based compute buildout succeeds
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Elon Musk's confidence statement is recent (20 hours prior) and subject to execution risk
- Satellite deployment timeline is speculative and dependent on technical feasibility
- Assumes AGI arrival by 2028 and training compute regulation by 2029
- Requires successful development of custom Vera Rubin space racks
- Depends on deployment of approximately 5,000 satellites for meaningful gigawatt-scale capacity
- Presenter acknowledges most people view this as 'science fiction'