Why I am CAUTIOUS About Tesla Stock Next Week
Overall Thesis
Jo Bhakdi expresses caution about Tesla in the near term while maintaining bullish conviction on his portfolio strategy, particularly after doubling down on Robinhood following positive earnings.
Narratives
Jo maintains a strong bullish thesis on Tesla with a long-term target of $6,000 by 2030-2031, driven by humanoid robots and autonomous transport. However, he expresses caution about Q1 2026, expecting the major inflection point to occur in Q2, likely starting in April.
Key Arguments
- Humanoid robots and autonomous transport thesis
- Major inflection point expected in Q2 2026
- Strong long-term fundamentals despite short-term choppiness
Jo is very bullish on Robinhood as his 'new number two' position after doubling down following earnings. He believes Robinhood will take over modern investment and finance, with only Coinbase as a competitor, and sees the current price around $75 as attractive after the selloff.
Key Arguments
- Strong earnings call performance
- Innovation in tokenizing stocks and blockchain integration
- Better positioned than Coinbase coming from stocks into crypto
- Attractive valuation at current levels around $75
Predictions (1)
Jo views Meta as undervalued among the Mag 7 stocks after Yann LeCun's departure, believing the company will now catch up in the AGI race without obstacles. He took profits after a 10% gain but keeps it on his agenda for future investment.
Key Arguments
- Removal of AGI obstacle with Yann LeCun's departure
- Undervalued compared to other Mag 7 stocks
- Will catch up in AGI race
Hedges & Caveats
- Title indicates caution about Tesla 'next week' despite overall bullish positioning
- Acknowledges recent market volatility and 'scary episodes' in Tesla price action
- Admits to underperformance versus Tesla benchmark this week (negative alpha)
- Recognizes diversification drag from Robinhood position despite bullish conviction
- Short put strategy exposed to underwater positions during market selloffs